This analysis is about the long term perspective about bitcoin which I see a potential decent gain in the future. but before that analysis, I have to remind you that this analysis is only the wild assumption based on the technical analysis only and not cover the fundamental analysis that may occurs in the future. I make this assumption only based on today’s market condition and the technical perspective. Beside that, I don’t do the timeline analysis about this projection. This upside movement can occur in the 2022, 2023 or more years ahead in the future.
This is the weekly time frame which I see there are several indicators and pattern that is driving current market’s price :
1. I use the logarithmic chart and assume the potential uptrend channel since the price forms the first bullish cycle in the 2013.
2. Since the 2013, this up trend channel is still holding the price well and this pattern is becoming the most important validation point for the bullish market.
3. Based on the Fibonacci trend based extension between the 2012 bull market — 2015 bear market, the bullish cycle that occurred in the 2017 had completed to touch the 16.618 Fibonacci Extension.
4. If we use the similar assumption based on point number 3, the 16.618 Fibonacci Extension at the next bullish cycle is located at around $180000 region which coincidentally is having an alignment with the upper line of this long term parallel channel.
However, even if the price touches the top of the next bullish cycle on the $180000 zone, we still have to anticipated the potential pullback as the side effect of the bubble in the bitcoin. Based on the previous action and confirmed pattern in the past, after the price reached the top of the cycle, there were minimum of 85% drop as the side effect of taking profit action for the big holders.
This is not the financial advice and this assumption is based on the technical perspective only. So, do your own analysis for your own decision.
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